The 97th Academy Awards will be presented on March 2 at 7 p.m. on ABC in a ceremony hosted by Conan O’Brien. It has been an interesting Oscars season with Karla Sofía Gascón making history as the first trans nominee for her performance in “Emilia Pérez,” followed by controversy with her social media posts, which have reportedly ruined her chances to win the award and really make history.
“Emilia Pérez” is the most nominated film this year, with 13 nods, but the backlash against Gascón is reportedly likely to keep it from winning the coveted Best Picture Oscar — much to distributor Netflix’s chagrin.
“Emilia Pérez” is competing against another musical, “Wicked,” the big-screen adaptation of the hit Broadway show, which features out actors Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey and Bowen Yang. Two other films with queer content — “Conclave” about the selection of a new Pope, and “The Brutalist” about an immigrant architect in Doylestown, PA, are also up for Best Picture, however, it is tricky to discuss the details of those dramas without spoilers.
The other six Best Picture nominees are: “The Substance,” a horror film about an aging actress; “Anora,” a romantic farce about a sex worker’s impulsive marriage; “I’m Still Here,” about a Brazilian family coping with the disappearance of its patriarch; “Nickel Boys,” an adaptation of the Colson Whitehead novel about two Black teens at a reform school; the Bob Dylan biopic, “A Complete Unknown;” and the sci-fi epic, “Dune: Part Two.”
Given the “Emilia Pérez” controversy, prognosticators are now expecting “Anora” to win the Best Picture Oscar. “The Brutalist,” an ambitious 3 ½ hour epic, which is also the kind of film the Academy likes to reward, has an outside chance. If those two films split viewers, which is also possible, the Academy voting strategy allows “Conclave” — a film almost everyone likes — to pull a surprise twist and sneak out a win.
While Sean Baker may have the momentum to win Best Director for “Anora” after triumphing at this year’s Producer and Director Guild Awards, Brady Corbet may still succeed for the achievement that is “The Brutalist.” It’s a tight race but look for Corbet to win. The other nominees this year are James Mangold for “A Complete Unknown;” Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Pérez;” and Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance.”
“The Brutalist” is expected to win a second statue for Adrien Brody in the Best Actor category as he delivers a powerhouse performance in the film. He is the favorite over Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown;” Sebastian Stan as a young Donald Trump in “The Apprentice;” Ralph Fiennes as a Cardinal in “Conclave;” and out gay Philadelphia native Colman Domingo for his turn as a prisoner in the drama, “Sing Sing.”
Competing against Gascón in the Best Actress category is queer actress/singer Cynthia Erivo for her performance in the box office juggernaut, “Wicked.” Erivo has been nominated twice before, for Best Actress and for Best Original Song for “Harriet” back in 2020. While Erivo deserves an Oscar — and if she wins, she would join the exclusive EGOT club — the category’s favorite is Demi Moore, for her riveting performance in “The Substance.” If there is going to be an upset in this category, Fernanda Torres would win for her remarkable turn in “I’m Still Here,” and become the first Brazilian actress to win an Oscar. Rounding out the Best Actress category is longshot Mikey Madison for her justly praised performance as a sex worker in “Anora.”
In the Best Supporting Actress category, Zoe Saldana is anticipated to win for her performance as a lawyer who helps the title character transition in “Emilia Pérez.” She is competing against Monica Barbara as Joan Baez in “A Complete Unknown;” Ariana Grande as Glinda in “Wicked;” Felicity Jones as Brody’s wife in “The Brutalist;” and Isabella Rossellini as a nun in “Conclave.” Saldana has received a number of awards already this season for her performance and is all but guaranteed to take home the Oscar.
In the Best Supporting Actor category, Kieran Culkin is the favorite for his award-winning turn as a young man on a Holocaust tour in Poland in “A Real Pain.” His rivals are Jeremy Strong for his performance as the loathsome gay kingmaker Roy Cohn in “The Apprentice;” Guy Pearce as Brody’s patron in “The Brutalist;” Edward Norton as Pete Seeger in “A Complete Unknown;” and Yura Borisov as the groom in “Anora.”
In the screenwriting categories, “Anora” is projected to win Best Original Screenplay, beating out “The Brutalist,” “A Real Pain,” “September 5” and “The Substance.” In the Best Adapted Screenplay category, “Conclave” is currently the favorite over “Emilia Pérez,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing.”
In the Best Animated Feature category, out gay filmmaker Adam Elliot is nominated for his film, “Memoir of a Snail.” Elliot won an Oscar 20 years ago for his animated short, “Harvey Krumpet.” His new film — which deserves the award — recounts a woman, Grace Pudel (voiced by Sarah Snook), recounting her life and discussing her gay twin brother, Gilbert (Kodi Smit-McPhee). However, “The Wild Robot” is all but assured to win this category, which also includes fellow nominees “Flow,” “Inside Out 2” and “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl.”
For Best Documentary Film, “No Other Land” about the West Bank, is being projected as the winner over “Black Box Diaries,” “Porcelain War,” “Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat” and “Sugarcane.”
In the International Film category, “I’m Still Here” is now predicted to beat the once-favored “Emilia Pérez,” with “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Flow,” and “The Girl with the Needle” as the also rans.
For the other categories:
“The Brutalist” will likely win for Best Cinematography over “Dune: Part Two,”
“Emilia Pérez,” “Nosferatu” and “Maria.”
Best Costume Design will be awarded to “Wicked” over “Nosferatu,” “Gladiator II,” “Conclave” and “A Complete Unknown.”
Best Editing will likely be a win for “Conclave,” with “The Brutalist,” “Anora,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked” rounding out that category.
“The Substance” will triumph in the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category, defeating “Wicked,” “A Different Man,” “Nosferatu” and “Emilia Pérez.”
“Wicked” will win Best Production Design, besting “The Brutalist,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Conclave” and “Nosferatu.”
Best Score is predicted to go to “The Brutalist” over “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” “The Wild Robot,” and “Wicked” with “El Mal,” the song from “Emilia Pérez” beating “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez;” “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight;” “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing;” and “Never Too Late” by the gay icon Elton John from his documentary, “Elton John: Never Too Late.”
Best Sound is being projected for “Wicked” over “Dune: Part Two,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Emilia Pérez” and “The Wild Robot.”
Best Visual Effects will be awarded to “Dune: Part Two” with “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” “Wicked,” “Better Man” and “Alien: Romulus” competing in that category.
In the Short Film categories, “Wander to Wonder,” the most accomplished of the nominees, is being favored in the Best Animated Short category over “Yuck!,” “In the Shadow of the Cypress,” “Beautiful Men” and “Magic Candies,” although “Magic Candies” is the best short of the bunch.
The death-row documentary short, “I Am Ready, Warden,” is expected to win in the Best Documentary Short category, but if there is an upset, it would come from “Death by Numbers,” which depicts the aftermath of the Parkland, Florida mass shooting. The category also includes the nominees “Incident,” “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” and “Instruments of a Beating Heart.”
And in the Best Live Action Short category, “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” is projected to defeat “Anuja,” “I’m Not a Robot,” “A Lien” and “The Last Ranger,” but the tense, terrific, and timely “A Lien” should be the winner.
Tune in on March 2 to see who takes home the Oscars!