For weeks, Pennsylvania has been the pivot for the campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. On Election Eve, in a reprise of Hillary Clinton in 2016, Harris gave her final stump speech in Philadelphia after a Get Out the Vote concert with a diverse group of performers that included Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Ricky Martin and Will.i.am, She was introduced by Oprah Winfrey, who had propelled Barack Obama’s candidacy in 2007.
It was Harris’s fifth rally that day in Pennsylvania where she had criss-crossed the state from Scranton to Pittsburgh and finally to Philadelphia after 11 p.m. The steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art have been called the Rocky steps for years and it was symbolism Harris embraced as she spoke about her status as an underdog in the race.
While Harris delivered a message of unity and forward-looking policy for all Americans regardless of party affiliation to a crowd that filled the Parkway, Trump was attacking her and suggesting she should be beaten up by boxer and convicted rapist Mike Tyson.
Star power was not enough to propel the votes Harris most needed in Pennsylvania. Despite high-profile support from entertainers, actors, former President Barack Obama, former First Lady Michelle Obama, former President Bill Clinton, Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Harris lost Pennsylvania by nearly four times the margin by which Hillary Clinton lost in 2016.
Pennsylvania wins Trump the election
Trump took the stage at his Mar-a-Lago resort home in Palm Beach, Florida to address his supporters after the Associated Press called his victory in Pennsylvania. In his speech, Trump said his comeback victory was due to “the greatest political movement of all time.”
Trump said he will lead the “golden age of America” and said, “This was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time. There’s never been anything like this in this country, and maybe beyond. And now it’s going to reach a new level of importance because we’re going to help our country heal.”
Speaking at 2:30 a.m. on Nov. 6, Trump said, “We’re going to help our country heal. We have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly. We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country, and we’ve made history for a reason tonight. And the reason is going to be just that. We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible.”
Trump said, “Every citizen, I will fight for you, for your family and your future. Every single day, I will be fighting for you. And with every breath in my body, I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will truly be the golden age of America. That’s what we have to have. This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again.”
Vice President-elect JD Vance also spoke, thanking Trump for an “incredible journey.”
Vance said, “I appreciate you allowing me to join you on this incredible journey. I thank you for the trust [you placed in] me. And I think that we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America. OK.”
He added, “And under President Trump’s leadership, we’re never going to stop fighting for you, for your dreams, for the future of your children. And after the greatest political comeback in American history, we’re going to lead the greatest economic comeback in American history. Under Donald Trump’s leadership.”
Pennsylvania was always the prize
Pennsylvania, with its 19 Electoral College votes, was the prize among the seven swing states, two of which — Nevada and Arizona — have yet to be called for either candidate. The state has determined the winner in every presidential election since 2004. In 2020, it was Philadelphia that put Pennsylvania over the top for Joe Biden, clinching the election in which both he and Trump won 25 states each.
Yet the day before the election, experts were suggesting Harris could still win without Pennsylvania if she won significantly among other swing states in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt.
But two Southern states came in early for Trump — Georgia and North Carolina. In the latter, Trump had targeted Harris after Hurricane Helene, spreading disinformation and misinformation about the Biden-Harris administration’s response to recovery efforts. How much those false narratives impacted voters — there was record voter turnout in the state — is hard to know even from exit polling. But on social media, stories were rife that the administration had abandoned the state, despite the governor’s statements to the contrary.
Voter turnout in Pennsylvania critical
In 2020, voter turnout in Philadelphia was key to Biden’s win. In 2024, Philadelphia voters failed to rally the same support for Harris, with Trump winning far more votes in the city than he did in 2020. When Pennsylvania was called for Trump at 2 a.m., the election was over: Trump won 50.6% of the vote to Harris’s 48.4% with about 150,000 more votes than Harris.
Trump did well with a population Harris had hoped to secure: Latino voters. In the collar counties of Lehigh, Cumberland and Berks, Latino voters ignored Trump’s anti-immigrant and deportation rhetoric to embrace his claims that they would be better off economically in a Trump administration.
Although Unidos reported Latino support for Harris was highest in Pennsylvania among the battleground states, those inroads Trump made with the key voting bloc that is one fifth of the population pushed him over the 50% mark — with Latino voters in Philadelphia adding to that percentage.
Anti-trans messaging
In October, Trump devoted a third of his ad buys in Pennsylvania to anti-trans ads. This focus was viewed by the campaign as a way to target Harris as politically extreme for her previous support as Attorney General of California for gender reassignment surgery for prisoners — something mandated as healthcare and thus a legal requirement under state law.
Using quotes from a popular Black radio show, “The Breakfast Club,” the Trump campaign targeted Harris specifically as “for they/them, not you.” Trump’s campaign argued that Black and Latino men particularly would not be supportive of Harris on this issue.
Trump had also claimed repeatedly at his rallies that children were getting gender reassignment surgery at school without parental permission. This unsubstantiated narrative from Trump was intended to lure more suburban white women voters.
Whether this anti-trans messaging was the key to these votes by Trump in Pennsylvania is unclear, but Trump did well among all three groups — far exceeding his 2020 or 2016 percentages.
The Bro Factor
One area of outreach for Trump in Pennsylvania and other swing states in 2024 has been young men — particularly young white men. While Harris urged men who loved women to vote for their reproductive rights, Trump focused on the grievance issues for men: economics to the more subtle issue of whether they wanted a woman controlling the country — and them.
Trump gave a three-hour interview on “The Joe Rogan Experience,” the top podcast in the U.S., which is very popular with younger men. Trump credits his youngest son Barron, 18, with urging him to go on the show, which many pundits claim helped Trump galvanize young male voters.
Pennsylvania: Purple StatePundits spent long into the night and throughout the morning opining about where Harris went wrong and questioning how Trump had managed to secure the Latino vote in Pennsylvania as well as such a significant vote in Philadelphia. The only clear determination from the Pennsylvania results is that the state has moved significantly purple since 2020. A move apparently no one — not even the winner — saw coming.
