Many Democrats, especially Pennsylvanians, Wisconsinites and Michiganders, still have a lot of PTSD about 2016. That election, which altered the American political landscape for decades to come by installing Donald Trump in the White House with all his fear-mongering, racism and misogyny. Hillary Clinton lost those key swing states by under 80,000 votes while third-party votes in those same states totaled over 800,000.
When Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, Democrats not only lost the White House, they also — as she had predicted — lost the Supreme Court and with it Roe v. Wade. On Dec. 22, 2015, she tweeted along with a link to her campaign website, “A Republican president could nominate as many as 4 Supreme Court justices. Why that should terrify you:”
A key spoiler in that 2016 race was Dr. Jill Stein, the perennial Green Party candidate who some say returns like a cicada every four years while not actually making any efforts to grow the Green Party or make inroads at the local level.
Stein is back as the best-known third-party candidate in a race that is perilously close and in which every vote counts. Those vote totals in 2016 were only a half point off: Hillary barely lost and she won the popular vote by more than three million votes. But the slave-era legacy of the Electoral College stalks America and weighs white votes more than others.
Americans in the most populous states don’t have the most say — quite the opposite. And the winner-take-all function of the Electoral College means that a tiny fraction of the vote can skew an election — as happened in 2016.
It could happen again — due to Gen Z
Democrats have been invigorated by Kamala Harris taking the helm — they were on the path to losing just a few months ago with President Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump badly. But Trump remains a well-known entity, while some voters claim, despite a whirlwind of interviews, rallies and town halls, that they still don’t know who Harris is. And anti-Harris attack ads from Trump and his various political action groups have presented her as a supporter of criminals over average Americans and a cackling, inhumane monster who doesn’t care if Americans are murdered by “illegals” they claim she and Biden let roam free across the Southern border — a claim that has been debunked.
The second wild card in this race is the role of Gen Z voters, many of whom are voting for the first time and have grown up in an era of gun violence, school shootings, a COVID lockdown and other mayhem that has colored their view of politics and politicians.
While Harris has done a lot of outreach to Gen Z — particularly young women — and a rally last week in LaCrosse, Wisconsin was attended by several thousand students, there are still some urgent questions being raised by these voters that are a problem for Harris.
That was evident when Harris spoke with the National Association of Black Journalists in Philadelphia last month. How she will address issues for Black youth and Black men especially, who Trump is trying hard to woo, and how she will differ from Biden on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza are crucial.
Gaza remains an inflection point
Last spring’s protests against the war in Gaza that broke out over scores of college campuses including the University of Pennsylvania were indicative of how much this issue influences some young voters, many of whom chose to vote “uncommitted” in the primary when Biden was still the Democratic candidate, totally a significant portion of the vote tally in key swing states like Michigan, which has the largest Arab-American population. In a general election, those voters could shift the election to Trump.
In September, the National Uncommitted Movement declined to endorse Harris directly, citing their concerns about the emotions of people with family in Gaza, but encouraged people to vote against Trump or throw away their votes on third-party candidates, citing the critical nature of the election, the stakes involved and the fact that Harris would be better for Gaza and Americans in general than Trump.
Millennials impatient with third-party voters
The Twitter/X platform and Instagram have been a source of debate over what many see as the indulgence and entitlement of those claiming — as happened in 2016 — that they just can’t vote for Harris or that Harris and Trump are indistinguishable.
Women, people of color and LGBTQ+ people have been especially disheartened by those asserting Stein, who has never received a single Electoral College vote, is the only choice. Monjula Ray, a queer Millennial Indian American, was succinct. In a post that has received more than 50,000 views, she wrote, “Nothing will get better if Kamala loses and a lot will get a lot worse. And that’s the reality third party voters want to gaslight us about.”
In a searing post, a writer, Redoubters wrote:
“I just want *one* “f*ck the Dems, vote third party” person to answer one question:
“What is the material benefit to the people of Gaza of you stickin’ it to the Dems (and, by corollary, helping elect Donald Trump)?
“How are they better off due to your principled stand?”
Liz Highleyman, science editor for POZ magazine who writes extensively about HIV/AIDS, wrote a different take about the third-party voters, noting that, “Some appear to think that a Harris loss will force Democrats to take their left wing more seriously & incorporate their policy preferences, but I fear that there will instead be a huge backlash against the left.”
No one disputes that Gaza will continue to be an issue for whoever wins the election. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coldness toward Harris and embrace of Trump are indicative of who his preference is for the next president. So voters really do have to choose between the options in what is a distinctly binary system. As the most left-leaning member of Congress, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez said of Stein, neither she nor the Green Party are serious.
That women, people of color, LGBTQ+ people and immigrants will all be exponentially worse off under a second Trump presidency in which he has immunity and the backdrop of Project 2025 is clear. Whether those lean on Stein — who doesn’t even know how many people are in Congress — over Harris, who has always supported marginalized communities throughout her 30 years of public service remains to be seen.