The takeaway from the New Hampshire primary was supposed to be good news for Donald Trump. It ended up being good news for Joe Biden.
The big race in the nation’s first primary, New Hampshire, was slated to be about a huge win for Donald Trump against his last remaining challenger, Nikki Haley — former South Carolina governor and Trump’s former United Nations Ambassador. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who narrowly beat Haley in Iowa, withdrew from the race on Sunday and immediately endorsed Trump. Trump’s win was supposed to be so big that Haley would join DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott, and Vivek Ramaswamy by dropping out and endorsing Trump.
That didn’t happen. Trump did not take it well.
Trump had predicted a big win for himself while Haley’s camp promoted a diminished expectations prediction of a close second. Haley’s was the better predictor. The final vote was 54.6% to 43.3%, with Trump securing 12 delegates to Haley’s nine. Trump won — but it was neither a landslide nor a mandate. This matters because Haley garnered votes from Republicans, Independents and even Democrats, all of whom would help her win in swing states in the general election. Trump was supported largely by his MAGA Republican base but is lacking the swing voters he needs to win in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the latter of which Trump lost in 2020 and has been indicted for instigating fake electors schemes.
So while the pundits on CNN, ABC, and MSNBC all collectively referred to Trump’s “double digit” victory, that’s a disingenuous take when Trump barely crested 10% in a race he should have swept.
That raises questions going forward, particularly in critical swing states like Pennsylvania, where suburban Philadelphia voters — many of them women — are crucial. The most recent polling out of Pennsylvania shows Biden holding steady at 47% but Trump losing ground. Haley, energized by her strong showing, made it clear in her speech that she is in it to win it and will be staying in the race through Super Tuesday. And she was talking to those suburban voters who have been key parts of her base.
“New Hampshire is first in the nation — it is not the last in the nation,” Haley said Tuesday as a loud wave of cheers and applause broke out across the room. Haley added that the race was “far from over.” She added, “We’re going home to South Carolina.”
Whether Haley makes it to March 5, when 16 states will hold primaries, is a big question mark, but her supporters were cheering her on in New Hampshire. She said a Trump nomination meant “a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency” which is certainly what most Democrats are hoping for.
After Haley’s speech that was more of a winner’s speech than a loser’s, Trump was clearly angry, having expected Haley to withdraw after an insurmountable loss.Trump’s speech was, as his speeches tend to be, long and rambling. It was also peppered with attacks on Haley, calling her an “imposter up on that stage,” and threatening to “get even.” “You can’t let people get away with bullshit,” Trump said. “And when I watched her, the fancy dress that probably was not so fancy.”
Yes, he attacked her dress.
Then Trump humiliated Sen. Tim Scott, who stood behind him on stage. Referencing how Haley had appointed Scott to the Senate when she was governor, making him the first Black senator from South Carolina, Trump said, “[Haley] appointed you, Tim? … And you’re the senator of her state. You must really hate her.”
Scott walked forward and stammered to Trump, “I just love you!”
It was as shameful a display as one can imagine, calling to mind some unpleasant racial stereotypes.
Democrats were not supposed to be contenders in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary at all. This was supposed to be a GOP moment. The Democratic National Committee approved a proposal on Feb. 4, 2023, that made South Carolina the first primary, flouting a half-century tradition. The rationale for Democrats’ withdrawal from New Hampshire is the demographics. New Hampshire is only 1.6% Black and the Democratic base is 40% Black. South Carolina, which solidified the vote for Joe Biden in 2020 after he lost both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary, has demographics that are more reflective of both the Democratic party and the country.
But New Hampshire Democrats were determined to have their voices heard and began a grassroots push to write in President Biden. Two other Democrats, self-help guru Marianne Williamson, who also ran in the 2020 Democratic primary, and Wisconsin Congressman, Rep. Dean Phillips, had already positioned themselves on the ballot. Phillips had been campaigning hard in the granite state.
But while pundits debated Nikki Haley’s chances against the disgraced, twice-impeached, four-times-indicted former president, voters were casting votes — write-in votes — for Biden. It was Biden who was the biggest winner Tuesday, coming in with 65.7% of the vote to Trump’s 54.6%. Biden’s nearest challenger, Phillips, won only 19.1%. Biden is the first candidate to ever win a primary as a write-in vote.
What does it all mean? Former DNC chair Donna Brazile suggested late Tuesday night on “Nightline” that it meant Haley would spend the weeks until the South Carolina primary getting battered and bruised by Trump. Brazile also reminded viewers that Trump goes personal in his attacks on his rivals.
Trump has already made racist comments about Haley’s first name. Haley, the daughter of immigrants from India, was born in South Carolina as Nimarata Nikki Randhawa. She has always gone by her middle name, Nikki. Last week, Trump took to Truth Social to call her “Nimbra” numerous times while on the attack against her, a move many called racist.
Trump didn’t wait to pile on in his Tuesday night speech. In what MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” co-host Joe Scarborough called “unhinged,” Trump not only attacked Haley’s clothes as cheap, with an obvious allusion to her as well, he also threatened her if she doesn’t drop out. Trump said, she’ll “end up under investigation” for “stuff she doesn’t want to talk about” and “she’ll be under investigation in minutes.”
That’s the paradigmatic mobster we’ve seen on display at Trump’s various trials. On Wednesday morning Trump was on a rampage against Haley on his Truth Social media app, calling her “delusional” and saying “Haley came in last, not second.” Other candidates still on the ballot garnered votes in the thousands, like DeSantis, and the hundreds, like Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson. Another 15 candidates received dozens of votes. All came in after Haley, who was indeed second.
Former White House Press Secretary under Trump, Kayleigh McEnany, added to the scrum Tuesday night, saying on a Fox News panel, “This was actually a fairly good night for Joe Biden. Only 10% said they would not vote for Biden if he was the nominee… When you look at the Republican Party, seven out of ten Haley voters said they wouldn’t vote for Trump.”
Washington Post writer Alexi McCammond suggested Wednesday in a column titled “How much does Nikki Haley’s gender matter?” that “portraying herself as an alpha female” puts Haley up against the toxic masculinity of the GOP. Which is yet another arena Biden — and especially Vice President Harris — have staked out for Democrats. The longer Nikki Haley stays in the race, the more she damages Trump and benefits Biden. And the hits Haley will be taking, and giving, will be talking points for Democrats, not the GOP.