As stated in this column months ago, before Dumpty Trump made his infamous and racist remark about Muslims, we should not look at him as a joke. Well, most did and now we’re at a point where he has the best shot at the Republican nomination for president.
Let me repeat myself: He should be taken seriously as a candidate. But first you must understand what that means. He’s the type of candidate that all campaigns want: the one where the candidate burns in the belly and will do or say anything to get that prize. To make it worse, he also understands media, and realizes what it takes to be in its limelight as much as possible. Hence, his modus operandi: Say something outrageous, let the media go crazy and then, as the roar dies down, say something more outrageous.
With Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio fighting for second or third place, it leaves the highway completely open for Trump. Those candidates are just not up to his game. Trump is in the mud, and they simply do not wish to enter the pit. That makes him look strong (that’s not exactly the case; he’s just not as weak as his competitors).
This makes for a great situation at the Republican convention in Cleveland in July.
The assumption is a Trump nomination would cause Republicans to lose their majority in the Senate. The party establishment is not overwhelmed with Cruz, so that leaves them with Rubio. But you can’t get a nomination with second- and third-place primary losses. Their only hope is that Trump doesn’t get the required number of delegates before the convention and thereby have a brokered convention where the party elite will decide who walks away with the prize. That would be a bloody battle, and one that will leave the party morale in a bad place before the November election. And for all their talk, Republicans are willing to send others to fight their battles, but never themselves.
The establishment side of the Republican Party is now attempting a last ditch effort: a Trump-Rubio or Trump-Kasich ticket, which would freeze out Cruz, who is universally disliked.
Over on the Democratic side, Bernie’s campaign was stunned by Hillary’s win in Nevada, and he’ll be hit again later this week when, as expected, he loses South Carolina. Then from March 1-8, 19 states and territories will have primaries, with Clinton expected to win most. At that point it is almost mathematically impossible for Sanders to catch up. He will, though, have enough delegates to be able to make some of his agenda clear on the party platform, and that is a victory of sorts.
So, it seems that this is your fall lineup, but again this has been a very strange political year and predicting anything is problematic. And as I said months ago in this very column, this worries me.