This week, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney picked up another state — Illinois — and the endorsement of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. With the primary win in Illinois, and his recent victory in Puerto Rico, Romney now has 562 delegates of the 1,144 needed to clinch the Republican nomination.
This year’s Republican nomination process has lasted longer than many had anticipated — and it will likely stretch through May, at least. The next candidate closest in the delegate race to Romney is former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, with 249. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich currently has 137 pledged delegates and Ron Paul has 71.
To date, Gingrich has won only two states: his home state of Georgia and South Carolina. Paul hasn’t come in first in any primary contest. (Of note, openly gay candidate Fred Karger garnered more votes than Paul in Puerto Rico.)
In April, seven states and the District of Columbia hold Republican primaries, including Pennsylvania and New York with 72 and 95 delegates at stake, respectively.
If Romney takes all the delegates from now through the end of April, he’ll still need another 200 to take the nomination. And since it’s not likely that he’ll sweep all the delegates in all the states — and unlikely that Santorum will drop out any time soon — the contest will continue.
The next primary is Louisiana on March 24 with 46 delegates at stake, followed by Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Wisconsin on April 3 with a total of 98 delegates in contention.
On April 24, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will hold their primaries, with 231 delegates in contest. In that race, Santorum will likely take the state he represented (Republicans here still like him), with Romney likely taking states in the Northeast.
The May primaries include Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia (May 8, 132 delegates); Nebraska and Oregon (May 15, 63 delegates); Arkansas and Kentucky (May 22, 81 delegates); and Texas (May 29, 155 delegates).
If Romney hasn’t clinched the nomination by then, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota and Utah hold primaries in June.
Barring any mandate for Romney, Santorum and Gingrich could stay in until the Republican convention in August and fight it out there.
Though Romney has banked to the right during this primary fight against Santorum, he’ll have to move to the center if he wants to pick up left-leaning independent voters.
On the other hand, if Santorum takes the nomination, President Obama will likely pick up more independents in the center, and perhaps some on the right who find Santorum’s conservatism too hard to swallow.